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Hurricanes and typhoons-- Stormy weather

(飓风&台风—暴风雨天气)

Climate change means more severe storms in both the Atlantic and the Pacific. But governments are getting a bit better at preparing for them.

(气候变化意味着在大西洋及太平洋上会有更猛烈的风暴。但是政府在应对这种情况方面(比之前)好一些了。)

节选自The Economist September 22nd 2018

People living on opposite sides of the planet have in recent days felt the disastrous consequences of distant rumblings in the deep ocean. In America, they are still suffering the devastation left by Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in North Carolina on September 14th. Less than 12 hours later super-Typhoon Mangkhut tore into the Philippines, subsequently to hit Hong Kong and southern China. Mangkhut packed a bigger punch: a category 5 storm when it first hit land, to Florence’s category 1. But the impact of both was linked to rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which are changing the climate and warming the sea.

(住在地球两边的人们最近几天都感受到了遥远的大洋深处隆隆声所带来的灾难性后果。身在美国的人们还在承受着弗洛伦萨飓风留下的巨大破坏之苦—该飓风于9月14日在北卡罗莱纳州登陆。之后不到12小时，超级台风山竹强势登陆菲律宾，随后进入香港及中国南部地区。山竹更加来势汹汹：初次登陆强度高达五级，而弗洛伦萨飓风为1级。但是这两者带来的影响都与大气层中增加的温室气体有关—温室气体正在改变地球气候并使海洋变暖。)

For that reason, future storms are also likely to be more severe than in the past. Florence and Mangkhut have shown the progress that has been made in preparing for them and mitigating the damage—but also highlighted how vulnerable many communities remain, especially in Asia.

(由于(变暖)的原因，未来的风暴也有可能比过去的风暴更为猛烈。(对于)弗洛伦萨飓风和山竹(的应对)已经显示出(人们)在应对以及减少损失方面取得的进步，不过也凸显了很多地区的弱点，尤其是在亚洲。)

The link with climate change comes from the accumulation in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases produced by the industrial burning of fossil fuels and by deforestation. They create an imbalance in the energy flowing in and out of the planet, driving temperatures up. About 90% of that additional energy ends up stored in the oceans. Researchers who monitor sea temperatures down to 2,000 metres have plotted a steady rise since the 1950s, reaching a record high last year. So far, 2018 is on course to set a new record.

(与气候变化有关是因为工业中化石燃料的燃烧加上滥伐森林所带来温室气体在大气中累积。这造成能量流入及流出地球过程中的失衡，引起温度上涨。多出的能量大约90%最终进入海洋。监测海洋至2000米之下温度的研究人员已经绘制出自1950年以来海洋温度持续增长图，去年达到历史新高。目前来看，2018年有望创造新纪录。)

Kevin Trenberth of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research says this explains storms like Florence and Mangkhut. Tropical storms in the Atlantic (known as “hurricanes”) and Pacific (“typhoons”) draw their energy from this abyssal heat store. Warmer oceans mean more intense and longer-lasting storms. Climate models have long forecast this. Moreover, sea levels are rising at a rate of 3mm per year. Two factors explain this: water expands as it warms; and glaciers are melting at both poles. Higher seas mean storm surges reach farther inland. And, as the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture that eventually falls as precipitation. Recent studies have explored these effects in detail, using real events. Earlier this year, for instance, Mr. Trenberth showed that deep-ocean temperatures just before Hurricane Harvey, which led to disastrous flooding in Houston in August 2017, were at a peak globally and in the Gulf of Mexico.

(美国国家气象研究中心的Kevin Trenberth表示这(海洋温度升高)解释了弗洛伦萨飓风以及台风山竹。大西洋热带风暴(被称为‘飓风’)以及太平洋风暴(即台风)能量均来自深海热浪。温暖的海洋意味着更强持续更久的风暴。气候模型很早就预测到这种情况。此外，海平线正在以每年3mm的速度升高。两个原因可以解释这一现象：海水随着温度升高而扩张而且两极冰川也在融化。更高的海平面就会有风暴潮更深入袭击内陆。并且，随着变暖，大气层就会容纳更多水分，最终成为降水。比如今年年初，Trenberth就为我们展示了深海温度在墨西哥湾达到全球峰值，而随后就爆发飓风哈维，造成了2017年八月份休斯顿的灾难性大洪水。)

Data recorded just after the storm revealed a drop in the heat content of the Gulf that closely matched the amount of rain unleashed by the hurricane. Mr. Trenberth and his colleagues concluded that Harvey “could not have produced so much rain without human-induced climate change.” Kerry Emanuel, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, estimates that a hurricane like Harvey in 2017 was made six times more likely by human greenhouse-gas emissions, and that by 2100 the risk will be 18 times higher than it was in the late 20th century.

(风暴之后所记录的数据显示出在墨西哥湾的热含量下降，而(下降值)与飓风所引发的降雨量非常接近。Trenberth及同事们得出的结论为如若没有人类引发的气候变化，飓风哈维不可能带来如此大的降雨量。麻省理工学院的KerryEmanuel估计像是2017年哈维这样的飓风因为人为排放的温室气体，出现可能性大了六倍，而且到2100年风险将比20世纪末期要高出18倍。)

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